The Next UK Recession Home

The Next UK Recession
23/06/2007 posted by Kevin S
Having lived through a few recessions, each one is different in it own way, affecting different parts of the economy in each case.

The recession in the 1980s mainly affected the manual worker demographic. Building and construction workers, tradesmen, engineers who were mostly males in a male orientated workforce rather than the employment more common to women.

The 90s saw a similar thing, this time however the sector hardest hit was overcrowded IT jobs.

The next recession will again, most likely cause most problems for the big sectors but the real question is what kind of person and their skills base will be hurt the most.

My own opinion is that this time around the Banking and Finance industries will be devastated from the top down. In the era of debt seen as wealth where the paper valuation of a persons house is thought of by the general populous as prosperity, the property market and associated industries, especially the finance and administration side will be in dire trouble. I would consider the construction and manual labour based firms to be somewhat insulated from the turmoil, although of course not completely neglected in any downturn.

These leads me to make the following list of the sectors I would think to be most at risk, as you can see they appear to be all finance, debt, and property related.

Insurance companies, underwriters.
Building Society and Banking Staff.
Any finance-based company.
Estate agents and the associations
Companies involved with Pension funds, endowments, currency traders and other financial trader.
IT and their support services.

No more Boom and Bust eh?